Germany will be the first country where EV sales surpass internal combustion engine (ICE), but New Zealand and Australia are many years away.
That’s according to Hippo Leasing which analysed countries with the most passenger car sales to predict when EV sales will overtake ICE.
“With many countries bringing in new rules around switching to an EV vehicle by a certain year, will these countries hit their target or will they be way off?” Hippo Leasing asks.
Germany is the first pick, Hippo Leasing saying EV sales there are forecast to reach the estimated total of all car sales as soon as the end of 2024.
Australia is predicted to have EV sales overtake ICE by 2045 (22 years off) and New Zealand by 2056 (33 years away).
Between 2020 and 2021, Germany saw the sale of EVs grow 109% from 330,000 to 690,000.
“If that growth rate continues, they’ll see EV sales reach the estimated total of all car sales as soon as the end of 2024, meaning it may be likely Germany could be the first country in the world to go fully electric,” says Hippo Leasing.
The United Kingdom would be next to make the transition to more EVs, with a deadline to switch by 2030 sales data looks promising for that to be hit even if the legislation isn’t in place, it adds.
“EVs managed a huge 90.5% growth increase between 2020 and 2021, which predicts EV sales will catch up with total passenger car sales by 2026, with around 1.85 million on the road.”
France and China EV sales would overtake by 2027, with China likely to have more than 30 million EVs on the road by the end of 2026, the latter having the world’s highest number of car sales, selling 21,481,537 cars in 2021, Hippo Leasing explains.
The average growth percentage (calculated between 2010-2019 to omit the last few years due to hardly anyone buying cars during the pandemic) was around 5.4%, giving an accurate idea of how many more cars are sold each new year, it adds.
“In comparison, the growth percentage of EVs was up to just over 77% between 2020 and 2021.
“Japan and India won’t see an EV takeover sales predict.
“Unless new regulations come in for Japan and India at the moment, due to sales it seems EVs won’t overtake ICE any time soon.
“Both Japan and India sold over three million passenger cars in 2021, but their number of EV sales make up a small margin of that.”
Japan sold 160,000 EVs in 2021 while India sold 23,000. Due to the predicted growth, neither will see EVs takeover other vehicles, says Hippo Leasing.
“EVs won’t overtake in Spain until 2171 and Brazil until 2056, if sales continue in the same fashion.”
Total passenger car sales were sourced from the Organisation Internationale des Constructeurs d’Automobiles (OICA) with EV sales from the International Energy Agency.
Russia, Indonesia and Turkey were omitted due to a lack of data.
